Click here to download September's Market Update charts.



September was a very good month for residential sales in our area, with 121 units sold through the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (HRAR MLS).  This total was the highest for any single month so far in 2011. In fact, since September sales typically decline compared to the summer market each year, the 121 homes sold in September represents the best September total since 2006 when 135 units were sold!  Does this mean the market is back to normal? No, but it is encouraging.

Also encouraging are the annual sales figures through the end of September as compared to sales in the first nine months of prior years. Our first chart, "Year Over Year Change in Residential Units Sold", shows this comparison quite dramatically.

The chart illustrates how through the first nine months of this year we are virtually even with last year's totals (1 unit less). Since the 2010 market was heavily influenced by the Homebuyer Tax Credit, keeping pace this year is a good sign. We can also see 2010 was virtually even with 2009 (3 units more). These two years stand in stark contrast to the four prior years in which sales totals for the first nine months of 2009 were 238 units worse than 2008...which had been 258 units worse than 2007...which had been 206 units worse than 2006...which had been 68 units worse than 2005! This probably tells us a couple of things; first, the tax credit helped to slow the steady slide in sales, and second, some things have happened in our market this year (lower inventory, lower prices, lower interest rates) which have enabled it to hold steady with last year's pace without any outside intervention.

Unfortunately for sellers, the average and median prices of homes sold in the past 12 months continues to decline slowly, standing at $189,062 and $168,750 respectively. As of the end of September, the one and three year changes in sales prices for residential units in the HRAR MLS are:

Three year change:    Average Price down -13.65%, Median Price down -12.43%
One year change:       Average Price down -4.57%,   Median Price down -2.45%

While inventory levels are still considerably lower than last year, the average days on market for homes sold in the past 12 months has climbed to 216.

All in all, we believe there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about the overall condition of our real estate market. While still slow compared to prior years, we appear to have been through the worst of it and the prospects of a slow recovery seem realistic. The next few months will be slower than the past few due to seasonal changes in the market, but we feel annual sales totals for 2011 will exceed those from 2010.

Click here to view or download our Market Activity Charts for September, 2011.